A Journey of Discovery: Reflections

As I write this, it is mid September 2006. I am writing in a sun-drenched room at our cottage in Ontario, thinking of the unrolling events of the last few months. It is a surprising time with some light events and some very dark ones.

For me, the light, bright events, come from the birth of twin grandsons, living on Vancouver Island. They turn my mind from the present dark colors of international and US politics and governance, and add balance in the promise youth opens for the future. And, on the same positive note, I have also met a large group of new and old friends, on two recent trips- one trip to South Africa and one to Montreal, where we met bubbling communities of people, young and old, experimenting in new options for interracial design and novel social and scientific experimentation. The collapse of apartheid in South Africa has slowly opened huge potential and hope. This is just the opposite of the public mood I see in the United States.

It stunned me to discover that major new centers, truly international in character, have emerged for resilience studies and policies- for the world’s coral reefs in Australia, for climate change in the UK and for regional and global social and ecological systems in Sweden. And all this is apparently influenced deeply by the discoveries and experiments presented by my own work over the last decades. All that says the world is exuberantly healthy and productive. But there are other, very dark events.

In the United States, the mood and currents of thought and politics perceived among good friends at our main home in the small fishing village of Cedar Key, on the Gulf of Mexico is depressing. They are good friends, but now deeply pessimistic ones. The political situation in the United States is quite simply ugly. It is a time when the power of the state has achieved a rigidity unseen since the triumphs of the falling of the Berlin Wall. Politicians have reacted to extreme disturbances, like the appalling terrorist attacks of 9/11, with a powerful military response, a blind view of history and cultures, and a greedy desire for narrow benefit. Global economic expansion and dependence on peaking oil supplies, particularly in the Middle East, lock geopolitics into a self-destructive state, from which transformation is extraordinarily difficult.

It is the classically destructive phase of the mature part of an adaptive cycle. It is also potentially creative, because opportunities for innovative experiments and novel enterprises start to open at such times. It is a time of potentially creative destruction. And a recent mid term election in the United States in November 2006 at least hints at a shift into a renewal that requires deep changes nationally and internationally. Democracy is indeed a huge invention that stimulates assessment of a society and institutions whose leaders have become rigid and myopic. Democracy, at times, can trigger its renewal.

That is what I want to end up discussing here. But I want to get to that point by musing about the personal contributions I’ve made, my colleagues have made and our colleagues in science have at times questioned, at times supported. That is the true skepticism of science unfolding. At times it is turned over by truly novel discoveries- a kind of Kuhnian revolution of thought and approach. I think that transformation has happened, and I will describe my personal journey in science that, with other such journeys, contributed to the transformation.

These reflections will be presented in a series of posts over the next few weeks.

Buzz Holling’s Reflections

C. S. “Buzz” Holling one of the founders of the Resilience Alliance has agreed to serialize his reflections on his research as a special series of posts on Resilience Science.

Though his publications Buzz Holling has contributed a powerful set of new ideas to ecology. These ranged from the mathematical formulation of predation, to the ideas of resilience, adaptive management, and panarchy. His work has had a growing impact in ecology and related fields such as ecological economics, geography, and global change research.

Holling Cites

Anatol Rapoport 1911-2007

Anatol Rappaport died Jan 20th in Toronto. Born in czarist Russia, he lived and worked in the USA and Canada. He was a transdisciplinary innovator who made substantial contributors to the study of commons dilemnas, systems, and peace. He was a co-founder of Society for General Systems Reseach. Perhaps most famously he was the inventor of the tit-for-tat strategy for the itterated prisoner’s dilemna. The Toronto Globe and Mail has an obtituary:

For Anatol Rapoport, rationality wasn’t all that rational. It was slippery and deceptive and tended to default to the selfish interests of the individual, only to hurt collective interests. Examples abounded: If every farmer kept as many cows as possible, soon there would be no grass to graze on, and all cows would die. If everyone ran for the exit of a burning building at once, no one would get out. If every fisherman took the maximum catch, the fishery would soon be depleted.

He believed war was no different: Belligerent factions actually work toward the same goal — to kill — in what appears (to them) as rational behaviour. The result is that all humanity is needlessly threatened by war and conflict.

Among the most versatile minds of the 20th century, Dr. Rapoport applied his protean talents in mathematics, psychology and game theory to peace and conflict resolution. The first professor of peace and conflict studies at the University of Toronto, he is known as one of the world’s leading lights in the application of mathematical models to the social sciences.

“This is a great loss for the program, the centre, Canada, and, indeed, all of humanity,” said Thomas Homer-Dixon, director of the program’s successor, the Trudeau Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies at U of T. “He was a man of staggering intellectual scope.”

He authored more than 300 papers and about two dozen books on decision theory, psychological conflict, semantics and human behaviour. His better-known volumes included Two-Person Game Theory, about zero-sum games, and its sequel, N-Person Game Theory, which analyzed contests in which there are more than two sets of conflicting interests, such as in wide-scale warfare, or poker. His work also led him, most prominently, to peace research (The Origins of Violence, 1989; and Peace, An Idea Whose Time Has Come, 1993).

via 3 Quarks

Anticipatory Ecological Dynamics

In a Dec 2006 paper in Science Anticipatory reproduction and population growth in seed predators by Stan Boutin et al (314(5807):1928-3) describe how squirrel reproduction increases prior to mast events (the synchronous production of large numbers of seeds), allowing population to increase with the pulse of resources (rather than lagging behind). This paper is important because it shows that the models animals have of their environment are an important aspect of their population dyanmics.

On Faculty of 1000 Biology my colleague Andrew Gonzalez writes about the paper:

The intriguing evidence presented in this paper suggests that classical theories of consumer-resource interactions are in need of modification. The vast majority of consumer-resource theory assumes that the reproductive success and population growth of a consumer depends upon the prior abundance of its prey. That is, that consumer-resource models are based on feedback control. Boutin and co-authors present convincing evidence that the population growth of squirrels (both North American and European) may in fact involve feedforward control. This means that the squirrels seem able to anticipate future “bumper” resource (seeds) production and adjust their reproductive output to coincide with this production. Although the cues used by squirrels to predict the future are not well understood, this finding should stimulate theoretical ecologists to alter their equations.

In my 2003 Ecology paper, Model uncertainity and the management of multi-state ecosystems: a rational route to collapse (84(6) 1403-1411), my co-authors, Steve Carpenter and Buz Brock, showed how people’s expectations of the future can alter system dynamics. In that paper developed a simple integrated social-ecological model that integrates a model of the future that people use to make decisions. When agents update their models of the future based on the behaviour of the world, the actions of the agents (and consquently the behaviour of the world) can change in surprising ways which do not occur when behaviours are fixed. In economics expectations about the future are often expected to stablize system behaviour, but when people’s models do not match the complexity of the world, expectations about the future can destablize the system producing complicated cycles of behaviour.

Ranking University Sustainability

A new report provides a College Sustainability Report Card that ranks 100 “leading universities” in North America on their campus environment and how they invest their endowments.

Schools are graded (from “A” to “F”) in seven categories. Four of the categories are on campus operations (administration, green building, food and recycling, and climate change and energy policies) and three endowment related categories (endowment transparency, shareholder engagement, and investment priorities). The report shows that while many universities are improving their operations, most schools do not have clear policies on how they invest their money.

McGill, Univ. of Toronto, and UBC were the only Canadian universites ranked. On campus policies UBC was by far the best (achieving all A’s on the on campus part of its evaluation), and was one of the top universities in North America. In Canada, UT was 2nd (receiving an A in administration and B’s in the other 3 categories. McGill was 3rd (last) with B’s in administration and food and recycling, and C’s in climate & energy and green building.

None of the Canadian universities do well in their endowment policies. However, McGill does better under these criteria (with no failing grades), while UT failed in endowment transparency and UBC failed in both in shareholder engagement and endowment transparency. Combining both these scores, UT and UBC tie, and McGill comes last – with overall grades of B-, B-, and C+.

Compared to all North American schools evaluated, UBC placed at the top, and UT and McGill in the lower middle.

Hopefully future issues of the Macleans Canadian university rankings will include evaluations of all Canadian universitiy sustainability practices and polices.

The full 120-page Report Card can be downloaded as can invidual school report cards.

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Disaster Data

The World Resources Institute’s EarthTrends weblog points to some data on trends in natural and manmade disasters.

Although natural and manmade disasters occur in all countries regardless of income or size, not all governments have the resources necessary for prevention and emergency response. For those regions already battling widespread poverty, disease, and malnutrition, disasters are a significant constraint on social and economic development. Understanding the trends that describe disasters through time and space is very important, particularly in light of climate change, which threatens to alter both the distribution and severity of disasters worldwide.

EarthTrends links to an interesting/scary figure on Trends in disaters below from UNEP.

trends in disasters

With growing population and infrastructures the world’s exposure to natural hazards is inevitably increasing. This is particularly true as the strongest population growth is located in coastal areas (with greater exposure to floods, cyclones and tidal waves). To make matters worse any land remaining available for urban growth is generally risk-prone, for instance flood plains or steep slopes subject to landslides. The statistics in the graph opposite reveal an exponential increase in disasters. This raises several questions. Is the increase due to a significant improvement in access to information? What part does population growth and infrastructure development play? Finally, is climate change behind the increasing frequency of natural hazards?


BBC Climate change game

The BBC has created an online flash game – climate challenge – in which the player is president of the “European Nations”. The player has to try to reduce green house gas emissions while maintaining the economy, energy, agriculture and water availability – while being re-elected. The game which also supports the warzone cheats,  is meant to illustrate what options are trade-offs are available to politicians, as well as the need to have policies at different aspects of society. However, some of the game mechanics and feedbacks are unclear (particularly how the economic part of the game works). Nevertheless the game is fun to try.

bbc climate change game

The game makers explain their rationale for making the game. They write:

The producers’ primary goal was to make a fun, challenging game. At times it was necessary to strike a compromise between strict scientific accuracy and playability. For this reason, Climate Challenge should not be taken as a serious climate change prediction.Apart from the primary goal of creating a fun game, Climate Challenge’s producers aimed to:

  • give an understanding of some of the causes of climate change, particularly those related to carbon dioxide emissions.
  • give players an awareness of some of the policy options available to governments.
  • give a sense of the challenges facing international climate change negotiators.

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Open Access to Science Under Attack

A January 26, 2007 Scientific American article Open Access to Science Under Attack:

The battle over public access to scientific literature stretches back to the late 1990s when Nobel Prize winner Harold Varmus began plans for PubMed Central–a repository for all research resulting from National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding–and, a few years later, launched the Public Library of Science (PLoS). These easily accessible journals and repositories have struck fear into the hearts of traditional publishers, who have enlisted the “pit bull” of public relations to fight back, reports news@nature.The Professional and Scholarly Publishing Division of the Association of American Publishers hired Eric Dezenhall, head of Dezenhall Resources, a PR firm that specializes in “high stakes communications and marketplace defense,” to address some of its members this past summer and potentially craft a media strategy. …

Specifically, according to Dezenhall’s suggestions in a memo, the publishers should “develop simple messages (e.g., Public access equals government censorship; Scientific journals preserve the quality/pedigree of science; government seeking to nationalize science and be a publisher) for use by Coalition members.” In addition, Dezenhall suggests “bypassing mass ‘consumer’ audiences in favor of reaching a more elite group of decision makers,” including journalists and regulators. This tack is necessary, he writes, because: “it’s hard to fight an adversary that manages to be both elusive and in possession of a better message: Free information.” Finally, Dezenhall suggests joining forces with think tanks like the American Enterprise Institute and National Consumers League in an attempt to persuade key players of the potential risks of unfiltered access. “Paint a picture of what the world would look like without peer-reviewed articles,” he adds.

Of course, open access does not mean no peer review. While the NIH is not in the business of peer review, according to Dr. Norka Ruiz Bravo, NIH’s deputy director for extramural research, the entirety of PLoS journals are peer-reviewed. “Open access journals are peer-reviewed to the same standards,” notes Mark Patterson, PLoS’s director of publishing. “We wanted to provide an open access alternative to the best journals to allow the very best work to be made publicly available.”

Google Gapminder

Google is now hosting Gapminder development visualization software that allows the interactive visualization and animation of several world development statistics, showing world development trends over roughly the past thirty years (ranges vary among data sources) . Indicators include: CO2 emissions/capita, Child mortality, Fertility, Economic growth, Income/capita, Life expectancy, Military budget, Girl/Boys in School, Population, and Urbanization.

The site has a great interface that easily allows the data to be visualized as either maps or scatterplots, as change the display. On the scatterplots each point can be represented by a bubble that represents the population of the country or other indicators. This site allows a user to easily explore data showing some of the huge changes – in things such as urbanization, life expectancy and population – that have occurred over past decades.

gapminder

Above is an example showing the relationship between per capita income and urbanization – showing the different trajectories of Nigeria, China and India. Many visualizations are possible. Here is a graph that shows the difference in life expectancy and child mortality between North and South Korea – with shading showing fertility, and another graph showing urban population vs. CO2 emissions per capita).