Great Transition Papers

gsg global trajectoriesGlobal Scenario Group developed a pioneering set of global environmental scenarios, which presented six global scenarios. There were three main scenario types, which each had two variants, producing: Conventional Worlds (Policy Reform and Market Forces), Barbarization (Fortress world and Breakdown), and Great Transitions (Eco-communalism and New sustainability paradigm).

These scenarios have some similarities to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) Scenarios. The GSG scenarios – Policy Reform, Fortress World, and Eco-communalism – are similar, but less ecologically oriented than the MA scenarios – Global Orchestration, Order from Strength, and Adaptive Mosaic. The fourth MA scenario TechnoGarden – market oriented ecological efficiency – does not correspond any of the GSG scenarios.

The Great Transition Initiative continues the GSG project by promoting a global transition to a sustainable society via a fundamental enhancement of global democracy and citizenship. It has prepared a set of papers Frontiers of a Great Transition that explore the challenges, opportunities, and strategies that a transition to sustainability requires. The paper are available as freely downloadable PDF files on the Great Transition Initiative website.

The papers are:

The Global Moment and its Possibilities
1. Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead
Raskin et al., 2002, 99 pp
Planetary civilization, global scenarios, and change strategies

2. The Great Transition Today: A Report from the Future
Raskin, 2006, 15 pp
An optimistic vision of global society in the year 2084

Institutional Transitions
3. Global Politics and Institutions
Rajan, 2006, 26 pp
Principles and visions for a new globalism

4. Visions of Regional Economies in a Great Transition World
Rosen and Schweickart, 2006, 34 pp
Re-inventing economies for the 21st century

5. Transforming the Corporation
White, 2006, 25 pp
Re-designing the corporation for social purpose

6. Trading into the Future: Rounding the Corner to Sustainable Development
Halle, 2006, 24 pp
International trade in a sustainable and equitable world

7. Security in the Great Transition
Knight, 2006, 16 pp
Imagining a transition to a world without war

8. How Technology Could Contribute to a Sustainable World
Vergragt, 2006, 28 pp
Technological innovation and human choice

Human and Environmental Dimensions
9. Great Transition Values: Present Attitudes, Future Changes
Kates, Leiserowitz, Parris, 2006, 13 pp
Alignment and tension between contemporary values and a new globalism

10. The Role of Well-being in a Great Transition
Stutz, 2006, 25 pp
Improved quality of life as an attractor for dematerialized societies

11. Feminist Praxis: Women’s Transnational and Place Based Struggles for Change
Harcourt, 2006, 19 pp
Lessons from women’s movements for a Great Transition

12. Sustainable Communities and the Great Transition
Goldstein, 2006, 21 pp
New frontiers for transforming cities

13. Climate Change: Redemption through Crisis
Kartha, 2006, 28 pp
The climate challenge and paths to an equitable solution

14. Resilience and Pluralism: Ecosystems and Society in a Great Transition
Lucas and Bennett, 2006, 22 pp
Human impacts on the biosphere and socio-ecological management.

Crystallizing a Systems Shift
15. Dawn of the Cosmopolitan: The Hope of a Global Citizens Movement
Kriegman, 2006, 25 pp
Prospects for a global movement and what it might look like

16. World Lines: Pathways, Pivots and the Global Future
Raskin, 2006, 25 pp
Dynamics of global change: crisis, choice, action

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