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Visualization

Declining child mortality – fast and slow

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From the Economist:

THE frequent death of children before their fifth birthday is both a disaster for their parents and one of the most reliable indicators of country-wide poverty. …  One of the United Nations’ Millennium Development Goals requires that by 2015, developing countries should reduce their under-five mortality rate to one-third of where it stood in 1990. Just 17 countries had met that target in 2010; notable among them were Brazil, Egypt and Turkey. While China, with 13% of the world’s 636m children under five, is on course to meet the goal by 2015, it will be among only an additional 23 countries to do so, leaving 101 countries set to miss the target.

Visualization

if history = people x years

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From Two thousand years in one chart | The Economist.

SOME people recite history from above, recording the grand deeds of great men. Others tell history from below, arguing that one person’s life is just as much a part of mankind’s story as another’s. If people do make history, as this democratic view suggests, then two people make twice as much history as one. Since there are almost 7 billion people alive today, it follows that they are making seven times as much history as the 1 billion alive in 1811. The chart below shows a population-weighted history of the past two millennia. By this reckoning, over 28% of all the history made since the birth of Christ was made in the 20th century. Measured in years lived, the present century, which is only ten years old, is already “longer” than the whole of the 17th century. This century has made an even bigger contribution to economic history. Over 23% of all the goods and services made since 1AD were produced from 2001 to 2010, according to an updated version of updated version of Angus Maddison’s figures.

The history of goods and services in some ways can be roughly considered as humanity’s impact on the planet. But that view assumes that economic activity has been consistent in its impacts on the planet.

Adaptation, Visualization

Peak Travel?

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A new paper in Transport Reviews by Adam Millard-Ball and Lee Schipper asks Are We Reaching Peak Travel? Trends in Passenger Transport in Eight Industrialized Countries.

Ball and Schipper looked at data from 1970-2008 in the United States, Canada, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and Australia.  They show that increases in passenger activity have driven energy use in transport, because growths in activity have swamped increases in efficiency.  But the relationship between travel and GDP changed during the last decade.  Previously increases in GDP lead to increases in travel, but in the last decade travel seems to have plateaued, and this halting of growth does not appear to be due to increases in gas prices. This is shown in Figure 2 in their paper.

In light of these findings, it becomes evident that understanding and forecasting inflection points in transportation trends is crucial for effective future planning. This is particularly significant for countries like Australia, known for its thriving tourism industry, with popular destinations like the Gold Coast attracting millions of visitors annually. By examining the changes in passenger activity and energy use in transport, as highlighted by Ball and Schipper’s research, policymakers and tourism authorities in Australia can better anticipate shifts in travel patterns and tailor their strategies accordingly. For instance, analyzing the impact of GDP growth on travel trends in the context of Australia’s tourism sector could help identify potential opportunities and challenges for the industry, potentially leading to more sustainable and efficient approaches in promoting travel experiences within the Gold Coast travel guide and beyond.

One of the challenges in planning for the future is anticipating inflection points in ongoing trends.  This paper could have made this point stronger if they compared predicted vehicle use against actual vehicle use, but that was not their main point.

They write:

As with total travel activity, the recent decline in car and light truck use is difficult to attribute solely to higher fuel prices, as it is far in excess of what recent estimates of fuel price elasticities would suggest. For example, Hughes et al. (2006) estimate the short-run fuel price elasticity in the U.S. to range from -0.034 to -0.077, which corresponds to a reduction in fuel consumption by just over 1% in response to the 15% increase in gasoline prices between 2007 and 2008. In reality, per capita energy use for light-duty vehicles fell by 4.3% over this period.

…[in these countries transportation sector] the major factor behind increasing energy use and CO2 emissions since the 1970s – activity – has ceased its rise, at least for the time being. Should this plateau continue, it is possible that accelerated decline in the energy intensity of car travel, some shifts back to rail and bus modes, and at least somewhat less carbon per unit of energy might leave absolute levels of emissions in 2020 or 2030 lower than today.

via Miller-Mcune