Tag Archives: feedback

Mapping impact of snow and ice feedbacks on climate

NASA Earth Observatory Image of the day has some powerful figures created with data from a new paper by Mark Flanner and others Radiative forcing and albedo feedback from the Northern Hemisphere cryosphere between 1979 and 2008. in Nature Geoscience. They use satellite data to estimate how changes in snow and ice in the Northern Hemisphere have contributed to rising temperatures over the last 30 years. They found that these changes in albedo have warmed the planet more than expected from models.

NASA Earth Observatory writes:

The left image shows how much energy the Northern Hemisphere’s snow and ice—called the cryosphere—reflected on average between 1979 and 2008. Dark blue indicates more reflected energy, in Watts per square meter, and thus more cooling. The Greenland ice sheet reflects more energy than any other single location in the Northern Hemisphere. The second-largest contributor to cooling is the cap of sea ice over the Arctic Ocean.

The right image shows how the energy being reflected from the cryosphere has changed between 1979 and 2008. When snow and ice disappear, they are replaced by dark land or ocean, both of which absorb energy. The image shows that the Northern Hemisphere is absorbing more energy, particularly along the outer edges of the Arctic Ocean, where sea ice has disappeared, and in the mountains of Central Asia.

“On average, the Northern Hemisphere now absorbs about 100 PetaWatts more solar energy because of changes in snow and ice cover,” says Flanner. “To put it in perspective, 100 PetaWatts is seven-fold greater than all the energy humans use in a year.” Changes in the extent and timing of snow cover account for about half of the change, while melting sea ice accounts for the other half.

Flanner and his colleagues made both calculations by compiling field measurements and satellite observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer, and Nimbus-7 and DMSP SSM/I passive microwave data. The analysis is the first calculation of how much the energy the entire cryosphere reflects. It is also the first observation of changes in reflected energy because of changes in the entire cryosphere.

Computer trading producing new financial dynamics?

In October 1987,  stock markets around the world crashed, with the Dow Jones droping 22%.  The causes of this crash are still unclear, but one of the suspected causes was computer automated trading.  This concern lead attempts to design mechanisms to break potential viscous cycles by creating ‘circuit breakers‘, rules that halt trading if the Dow rapidly .  However, as financial engineers innovate, new risks are emerging.   The Financial Times writes Computer-driven trading raises meltdown fears:

An explosion in trading propelled by computers is raising fears that trading platforms could be knocked out by rogue trades triggered by systems running out of control.

Trading in equities and derivatives is being driven increasingly by mathematical algorithms used in computer programs. They allow trading to take place automatically in response to market data and news, deciding when and how much to trade similar to the autopilot function in aircraft.

Analysts estimate that up to 60 per cent of trading in equity markets is driven in this way.

… Frederic Ponzo, managing partner at GreySpark Partners, a consultancy, said: “It is absolutely possible to bring an exchange to breaking point by having an ‘algo’ entering into a loop so that by sending them at such a rate the exchange can’t cope.”

Regulators say it is unclear who is monitoring traders to ensure they do not take undue risks with their algorithms.

The Securities and Exchange Commission has proposed new rules that would require brokers to establish procedures to prevent erroneous orders.

Mark van Vugt, global head of sales at RTS Realtime Systems, a trading technology company, said: “If a position is blowing up so fast without the exchange or clearing firm able to react or reverse positions, the firm itself could be in danger as well.”

For more details on current problems see the Financial Times article Credit Suisse fined over algo failures

NYSE Euronext revealed on Wednesday it had for the first time fined a trading firm for failing to control its trading algorithms in a case that highlights the pitfalls of the rapid-fire electronic trading that has come to dominate many markets.

The group, which operates the New York Stock Exchange, said it had fined Credit Suisse $150,000 after a case in 2007 when hundreds of thousands of “erroneous messages” bombarded the exchange’s trading system.

Asked if the exchange’s systems could have been knocked out, he said: “If you had multiplied this many times you’d have had a problem on your hands.”