Software development job with Natural Capital Project

In line with the Natural Capital Project’s commitment to innovation, the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) has revolutionized the monitoring and progress tracking of their work. Leveraging AI algorithms, the project team can now utilize advanced software development project management tools that analyze vast amounts of data and provide real-time insights on the status of various tasks and milestones. This cutting-edge approach not only ensures efficient coordination among team members but also enables prompt decision-making, allowing the lead software developer to identify potential bottlenecks, allocate resources effectively, and optimize the overall development process. By harnessing the power of AI-driven monitoring, the Natural Capital Project continues to forge new frontiers in ecosystem service decision-making, reinforcing its position as a global leader in sustainable development.

The Natural Capital Project an exciting international collaboration that aims to improve ecosystem service decision making by developing new spatial modelling tools is looking for a lead software developer.

They write:

Are you a software whiz looking for responsibility, independence, and the opportunity to solve our biggest environmental problems? Do you want to work in the vibrant Stanford campus with internal access to the intellectual and entrepreneurial heartbeat of its community?

We are a highly collaborative group of researchers who need expertise to translate our biophysical and economic models into easy, useful tools for policy makers.  We seek a lead software developer to help us make a global impact on major decisions about human well-being, sustainability, and the use of our lands and waters.

We are a partnership among The Nature Conservancy, World Wildlife Fund, Institute on the Environment at the University of Minnesota, and Stanford University developing tools to model and map the distribution of biodiversity and the flow of multiple ecosystem services across land- and seascapes. Our core team is based in Seattle, Washington, DC and at Stanford, and we have active partners around the globe.

We seek a talented and experienced software developer with strong leadership and communication skills to lead the development of the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) family of software tools.

Details of the position are here.

Harvard Sustainability Science Fellowships

From Harvard’s Sustainability Science Program:

The Sustainability Science Program at Harvard University’s Center for International Development invites applications for resident fellowships in sustainability science for the University’s academic year beginning in September 2011.

The fellowship competition is open to advanced doctoral and post-doctoral students, and to mid-career professionals engaged in research or practice to facilitate the design, implementation, and evaluation of effective interventions that promote sustainable development.

Applicants should describe how their work would contribute to “sustainability science,” the emerging field of use-inspired research seeking understanding of the interactions between human and environmental systems as well as the application of such knowledge to sustainability challenges relating to advancing development of agriculture, habitation, energy and materials, health and water while conserving the earth’s life support systems.

This year we will give some preference to applicants whose work addresses challenges of innovation for sustainable development, with special attention to innovation in the energy, health and agricultural sectors. In addition to general funds available to support this fellowship offering, special funding for the Giorgio Ruffolo Fellowships in Sustainability Science is available to support citizens of Italy or developing countries who are therefore especially encouraged to apply.

The Sustainability Science Program is directed by Professors William Clark and Michael Kremer, and Nancy Dickson. For more information on the fellowships application process see http://www.cid.harvard.edu/sustsci/fellowship. Applications are due December 1, 2010.

Feedback Analysis Job at PIK

The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) is looking to fill a research position within the Marie Curie Network GREENCYCLES-II, based in Potsdam, Germany:

T5.3 Feedback analysis and evaluation using the CLIMBER model

The Early-Stage Researcher (PhD candidate) will investigate feedbacks between climate and vegetation using the CLIMBER family of intermediate-complexity Earth-system models developed at PIK. Specifically, the established CLIMBER-2 model will be used to evaluate biosphere-climate interactions at global and continental scales. This will be complemented by more detailed investigations of feedbacks resulting from large-scale modifications of the land surface such as due to expanded biofuel production with the CLIMBER-3 model currently under development.

The successful candidate will actively participate in network-wide workshops and training events.

The position is expected to start on 1 January 2011 and run until 31 December 2013. Applications should arrive before 1.10.2010, but will be also accepted until the position is filled.

Interested candidates should send a CV, a half-page statement of interest, copies of your high-school and academic certificates, the names of two referees and a completed Eligibility Form (http://www.greencycles.org/vacancies/) to Dr. Andrey Ganopolski, preferably by e-mail (Andrey.Ganopolski@pik-potsdam.de) or by post (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PF 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany).

Payment will be according to Marie Curie rules (http://ec.europa.eu/research/mariecurieactions/), including an allowance for transnational travel and mobility.

At the start of their fellowship, researchers may not have resided or carried out their main activity (work, studies, etc) in Germany for more than 12 months in the preceding 3 years. German nationals are eligible only if they have been active in research in a non-Associated Third Country for at least three of the last four years

Early-stage researchers (ESRs) must be in the first 4 years (full-time equivalent) of their research careers, including the period of research training, starting at the qualification date.
PIK seeks to increase the number of female scientists and encourages them to apply. Disabled persons with comparable qualifications receive preferential status.

Feedback Analysis: 3 links

1) On MetaSD Brian Eno, meet Stafford Beer

Brian Eno reflects on feedback and self-organization in musical composition, influenced by the organization of complex systems in Stafford Beer’s The Brain of the Firm.

2) RealClimate: Introduction to feedbacks.

Feedbacks are components of the climate system that are constrained by the background climate itself; they don’t cause it to depart from its reference norm on their own, but rather may amplify or dampen some other initial push. These original “pushes” are forcings which are typically radiative in nature (such as adding CO2 to the air) and manifest themselves as a climate change when they are large enough or persistent enough to overcome the large heat capacity of the oceans, and thus change the annual mean radiative energy balance of the Earth. In a broad sense, a feedback means that some fraction of the output is fed back into the input, so the radiative perturbation gets an additional nudge (amplifying the forcing, a positive feedback or damping the forcing, a negative feedback). The major examples such as decline in ice extent in a warmer world, thereby reducing the reflected fraction of incident surface radiation are pretty well known at this point.

3) Gerard Roe in Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences writes about Feedbacks, Timescales, and Seeing Red (doi:10.1146/annurev.earth.061008.134734) writes:

The history of the recognition of feedbacks is perhaps best described as an emerging awareness. Adam Smith, for instance, had a clear understanding of the feedbacks inherent in the operation of the invisible hand—the set of natural and mutual interactions that govern commerce (Smith 1776). In practical applications, the use of feedback principles to regulate mechanical devices goes back much further. Centrifugal governors, which act to automatically maintain the distance between the bed and runner stones, have been employed in wind- and water mills since the seventeenth century (e.g., Maxwell 1867), and float valves were used by the Greeks and Romans in water clocks. However, the abstract idea of a feedback was first conceived of and formalized by Harold S. Black in 1927. Black was searching for a way to isolate and cancel distortion in telephone relay systems. He describes a sudden flash of inspiration while on his commute into Manhattan on the Lackawanna Ferry. The original copy of the page of the New York Times on which he scribbled down the details of his brain wave a few days later still has pride of place at the Bell Labs museum, where it is regarded with great reverence (Figure 1). Some of the concepts and consequences of feedbacks are counterintuitive, so much so that it took Black more than nine years to get his patent granted—the U.K. patent office would not countenance it until a fully working model was delivered to them. Only after being convinced that seventy negative-feedback amplifiers were already in operational use were they finally persuaded to issue a patent. Black (1977) writes that “[o]ur patent application was treated in the same manner one would a perpetual motion machine.” Since the initial skepticism, the principles of feedback analysis have become widely disseminated in the fields of electrical engineering and control systems. For the latter, in fact, they are the foundational theory.

The notion that internal, mutually interacting processes in nature may act to amplify or damp the response to a forcing goes back at least as far as Croll (1864), who invoked the interaction between temperature, reflectivity, and ice cover in his theory of the ice ages. Arrhenius (1896), in his original estimate of the temperature response to a doubling of carbon dioxide, takes careful and quantitative account of the water vapor feedback that amplifies the response to the radiative forcing. The explicit mention of feedbacks seems to enter the Earth sciences via the climate literature starting in the mid 1960s (e.g., Manabe & Wetherald 1967, Schneider 1972, Cess 1975), and in the popular imagination through the concept of Gaia (Lovelock & Margulis 1974). At first, it appears mainly as a conceptual description of physical processes relating to climate sensitivity.  Hansen et al. (1984) and Schlesinger (1985) contributed groundbreaking papers, making quantitative comparisons of different feedbacks in a climate model (but see footnote 4). Since then, there has been a thin but steady stream of studies quantifying climate system feedbacks (e.g., Manabe and Wetherald 1988, Schlesinger 1988, Cess et al. 1990, Zhang et al. 1994, Colman et al. 1997, Colman 2003, Soden & Held 2006).

From Roe 2009

Part-time job on Resilience with Shareable

Neal Gorenflo writes that Shareable Magazine, a nonprofit online magazine that publishes stories about how to share resources, is  looking for a part-time contract editor for their Ecosystem channel.  They hosted  a Resilience inspired event called Design 4 Resilience in April 2010.  They are looking for someone to:

Write about innovations in managing important physical commons like
fisheries, forests, climate, water and more. Write useful how-tos, guides,
and share news of the commons. Make the commons relevant to a general
audience. Environmental reporting experience appreciated, but not
mandatory.

Key words: social-ecological resilience, the commons,
Elinor Ostrom, The Resilience Alliance, conservation, environment.

LINK: http://shareable.net/channel/ecosystem
Instructions for applying: http://sfbay.craigslist.org/pen/wri/1966914496.html

Homer-Dixon on Risk, Uncertainty and Crises

Think Globally Radio recently posted a number of great interviews. Here is one interesting one with political scientist, and renown author Thomas Homer-Dixon from University of Waterloo (Canada) – one of the world’s leading scholars on the intersection of environment, security and crisis.

Direct link to the interview can be found here.

Inequality in the USA – driven by politics?

1) Multi-part Slate series  The Great Divergence 2010:What’s causing America’s growing income inequality? by Timothy Noah examines changes in inequality in the USA and evaluates multiple explanations.  He introduces the series by writing:

In the late 1970s, a half-century trend toward growing income equality reversed itself. Ever since, U.S. incomes have grown more unequal. Middle-class incomes stagnated while the top 1 percent’s share of national income climbed to 24 percent.

2) Crooked Timber reviews new popular book Winner take All Politics: How Washington Made the Rich Richer–and Turned Its Back on the Middle Class by political scientist’s Jacob Hacker and Paul Pierson.  Henry Farrell writes:

[the book] should transform the ways in which we think about and debate the political economy of the US.  The underlying argument is straightforward. The sources of American economic inequality are largely political – the result of deliberate political decisions to shape markets in ways that benefit the already-privileged at the expense of a more-or-less unaware public.

3) An academic paper in Politics and Society (DOI: 10.1177/0032329210365042) by Jacob Hacker and Paul Pierson presents the ideas behind the book and a number of commentaries was published this year in a special issue.  It is available online at: http://pas.sagepub.com/content/38/2/152.full.pdf.  Hacker and Pierson conclude their article by writing:

Explaining the remarkable rise of winner-take-all requires a true political economy— that is, a perspective that sees modern capitalism and modern electoral democracies as deeply interconnected. On the one side, government profoundly influences the economy through an extensive range of policies that shape and reshape markets. On the other side, economic actors—especially when capable of sustained collective action on behalf of shared material interests—have a massive and ongoing impact on how political authority is exercised.
… Too many economists and political scientists have treated the American political economy as an atomized space, and focused their analysis on individual actors, from voters and politicians to workers and consumers. But the American political economy is an organized space, with extensive government policies shaping markets, and increasingly powerful groups who favor winner-take-all outcomes playing a critical role in politics. Finding allies in both political parties, organized groups with a long view have successfully pushed new initiatives onto the American political agenda and exploited the opportunities created by American political institutions to transform U.S. public policy…. In the process, they have fundamentally reshaped the relative economic standing and absolute well-being of millions of ordinary Americans. Politics and governance have been central to the rise of winner-take-all inequality.

Estimating welfare: another measure

New NBER paper Beyond GDP? Welfare across Countries and Time by Charles Jones and Peter Klenow looks interesting.  They propose a new summary statistic for a nation’s flows of welfare that combines data on consumption, leisure, inequality, and mortality.  They do not include welfare gains from ecosystem services.

The authors explain their index:

… High hours worked per capita and a high investment rate are well known to deliver high GDP, other things being equal. But these strategies have associated costs that are not reflected in GDP. Our welfare measure values the high GDP but adjusts for the lower leisure and lower consumption share to produce a more accurate picture of living standards.

This paper builds on a large collection of related work. … We try to incorporate life expectancy and inequality and make comparisons across countries as well as over time, but we do not attempt to account for urban disamenities. The World Bank’s Human Development Index combines income, life expectancy, and literacy into a single number, first putting each variable on a scale from zero to one and then averaging. In comparison, we combine different ingredients (consumption rather than income, leisure rather than literacy, plus inequality) using a utility function to arrive at a consumption equivalent welfare measure that can be compared across time for a given country as well as across countries. Fleurbaey (2009) contains a more comprehensive review of attempts at constructing measures of social welfare.

They discover that while their index is highly correlated with GDP/capita (.95) there are still important differences among countries using this new measure.  They also find welfare growth is less correlated with GDP (0.82), and exhibits even larger differences among individual countries.  According to their index, welfare is being substantially increased by recent increases in life expectancy worldwide (with the major exception of sub-Saharan Africa).

Using this index many developing countries are poorer than GDP/capita alone suggests due to inequality, poor health and lack of leisure.

Visualising sustainability

Computing for Sustainability has a fascinating collection of conceptual diagrams of sustainability.  The collection includes over 250 images.

results from a google image search for sustainable development conceptual diagram

Its a diverse set including everything from Herman Daly’s vision of the economy (#1), the MA’s ecosystem service framework (#168), panarchy (#175), and Heman Daly’s steady state economy (#177).  But it could use some editing and organization as it also includes many images that are not related to sustainability, such as the Seed logo integrated with balancing bodywork #41, or IWW’s poster of the capitalist system #199.

Recent papers on ecological resilience

1. Hughes TP, Graham NA, Jackson JB, Mumby PJ, Steneck RS. 2010  Rising to the challenge of sustaining coral reef resilienceTrends in Ecology and Evolution. [epub]

Phase-shifts from one persistent assemblage of species to another have become increasingly commonplace on coral reefs and in many other ecosystems due to escalating human impacts. Coral reef science, monitoring and global assessments have focused mainly on producing detailed descriptions of reef decline, and continue to pay insufficient attention to the underlying processes causing degradation. A more productive way forward is to harness new theoretical insights and empirical information on why some reefs degrade and others do not. Learning how to avoid undesirable phase-shifts, and how to reverse them when they occur, requires an urgent reform of scientific approaches, policies, governance structures and coral reef management.

2. Côté IM, Darling ES, 2010 Rethinking Ecosystem Resilience in the Face of Climate Change. PLoS Biol 8(7): e1000438.

In this Perspective, we will argue that the expectation of increased resilience of natural communities to climate change through the reduction of local stressors may be fundamentally incorrect, and that resilience-focused management may, in fact, result in greater vulnerability to climate impacts. We illustrate our argument using coral reefs as a model. Coral reefs are in an ecological crisis due to climate change and the ever-increasing magnitude of human impacts on these biodiverse habitats [11],[12]. These impacts stem from a multiplicity of local stressors, such as fishing, eutrophication, and sedimentation. It is therefore not surprising that the concept of resilience—to climate change in particular—is perhaps more strongly advocated as an underpinning of management for coral reefs than for any other ecosystem [9],. Marine reserves or no-take areas, the most popular form of spatial management for coral reef conservation, are widely thought to have the potential to increase coral reef resilience [11],[13],[14],[17]. But do they really?

3. Brock, W. A., and S. R. Carpenter. 2010. Interacting regime shifts in ecosystems: implication for early warnings. Ecological Monographs 80:353–367.

Big ecological changes often involve regime shifts in which a critical threshold is crossed. Thresholds are often difficult to measure, and transgressions of thresholds come as surprises. If a critical threshold is approached gradually, however, there are early warnings of the impending regime shift. …  Interacting regime shifts may muffle or magnify variance near critical thresholds. Whether muffling or magnification occurs, and the size of the effect, depend on the product of the feedback between the state variables times the correlation of these variables’ responses to environmental shocks.

4. Dawson, T.P., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Kluvánková-Oravská, T., Chobotová, V. & Stirling, A. 2010. Dynamic properties of complex adaptive ecosystems: implications for the sustainability of service provision. Biodiversity and Conservation. 19(10) 2843-2853.

Predicting environmental change and its impacts on ecosystem goods and services at local to global scales remains a significant challenge for the international scientific community. … Social-Ecological Systems (SES) theory addresses these strongly coupled and complex characteristics of social and ecological systems. It can provide a useful framework for articulating contrasting drivers and pressures on ecosystems and associated service provision, spanning different temporalities and provenances. Here, system vulnerabilities (defined as exposure to threats affecting ability of an SES to cope in delivering relevant functions), can arise from both endogenous and exogenous factors across multiple time-scales. Vulnerabilities may also take contrasting forms, ranging from transient shocks or disruptions, through to chronic or enduring pressures. Recognising these diverse conditions, four distinct dynamic properties emerge (resilience, stability, durability and robustness), under which it is possible to maintain system function and, hence, achieve sustainability.