All posts by Garry Peterson

Prof. of Environmental science at Stockholm Resilience Centre at Stockholm University in Sweden.

Disproportionality in Social Ecological Systems

Malcolm Gladwell has a good article on disproportionality in the New Yorker Millon Dollar Murray: Why problems like homelessness may be easier to solve than to manage. His article focuses on homelessness and air pollution – on how most of the cost of homelessness and comes from a tiny part of the homeless population – and how most air pollution comes from a tiny part of the car population.

Disproportionality is fairly general in many forms of environmental impact. For example, in the Lake Mendota watershed in Wisconsin, most of the phosphorus pollution comes from only a few of the farms in the watershed. However, ecological disproportionality is complicated by the fact that the vulnerability of different sites to human impact also varies – which compounds the disproportionality.

In a recent paper Disproportionality as a Framework for Linking Social and Biophysical Systems (Society and Natural Resources 2006 19:153-173) Pete Nowak, Sarah Bowen, and Perry Cabot write

Early social science was influenced by the work of Adolphe Quetelet, who promoted the idea that the average in a normal distribution represented the ‘‘essence’’ of a social system whereas variance or outliers were viewed as ‘‘accidents’’ in the study of social processes (Kruger et al. 1990). Charles Darwin, on the other hand, viewed variance, or the outlier, as central to understanding evolutionary biological processes. In this article, we have argued that giving more attention to variance across multiple scales can serve as a conceptual bridge between the social and biophysical sciences. Disproportionality is a concept that can bridge disciplines by focusing on the salient interactions between humans and their environments at different spatial and temporal scales.

Nowak et al use the example of farming practices and phosphorus runoff to explore how disproportionality in social and ecological systems intersects. They use the figure below to illustrate how the impact of a behaviour is shaped by place and timing.
Disproportionality

Figure (from Nowak’s paper) The combination of typical conservation behavior, exhbiting a skewed normal or log-normal probability distribution, and typical environmental conditions, also exhbiting a skewed normal or log-normal probability distribution of the probability of environmental risk, combines to produce a situation in which a small proportion of inappropriate social behaviors within a particularly vulnerable setting can have a disproportionately large impact on overall environmental quality of an ecological system.

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Economic Understanding

Foreign Policy magazine has brief editorial essay Economist Class by Moisés Naím on the state of current economics.

A survey published in the Journal of Economic Perspectives found that 77 percent of the doctoral candidates in the leading departments in the United States believe that “economics is the most scientific of the social sciences.” It turns out, however, that this certitude does not stem from how well they regard their own discipline but rather from their contempt for the other social sciences. Although they were nearly unanimous about the relative superiority of their profession, only 9 percent of the respondents were convinced that economists agree on fundamental issues.

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Thunderstorms and cross-scale land atmosphere couplings

In a Dec 2005 commentary on Feddema et al (2005) The Importance of Land-Cover Change in Simulating Future Climates. Roger Pielke Sr. writes on the role of land use change in shaping thunderstorms:

One example of how land use and land cover affects global climate is the changing spatial and temporal pattern of thunderstorms. Land use and land cover change and variability modify the surface fluxes of heat and water vapor. This alteration in the fluxes affects the atmospheric boundary layer, and hence the energy available for thunderstorms. As shown in the pioneering work of Riehl and Malkus and Riehl and Simpson, at any time there are 1500 to 5000 thunderstorms globally (referred to as “hot towers”) that transport heat, moisture, and wind energy to higher latitudes. Because thunderstorms occur over a relatively small percentage of Earth’s surface, a change in their spatial patterns would be expected to have global climate consequences. The changes in the spatial patterning of thunderstorms result in regional alterations in tropospheric heating that directly change atmospheric and ocean circulation patterns, including the movement and intensity of large-scale high- and low-pressure weather systems. Most thunderstorms (by a ratio of about 10 to 1) occur over land, and so land use and land cover have a greater impact on the climate system than is represented by the fraction of area that the land covers.

NASA has mapped global lighting strikes. The below image shows the global average annual occurrence of lightning at a resolution of ½° by ½°.

Compare this map against Gordon et al’s map of vapour flow changes, and it becomes apparent that some of the areas of strong vapour flow change are in areas of high thunderstorm activity.  It would be interesting to discover what effect the changes in land cover/land use are doing to thunderstorms and if this has any effect on regional/global climate.

Fishing through marine foodwebs

Tim Essington, Anne Beaudreau and John Wiedenmann have a interesting new paper in PNAS Fishing through marine food webs.

The paper elaborates on Pauly and others influential 1998 paper Fishing Down Marine Food Webs that showed that the mean trophic level of global fisheries statistics declined from 1950 to 1994 (from an average of 3.3 to 3.1).

Essington et al analyzed regional fisheries data from 1950 to 2001. They also found a decline in trophic level in 30 of 48 large marine ecosystems, and that the average decline was .42 trophic levels (almost twice as large as the decline found by Pauly et al). However, they did more than replicate Pauly et al’s work at a regional level, they also tested two alternative models of fishing down foodwebs – sequential collapse (the removal of top levels) vs. sequential addition (adding lower level fisheries). They evaluated these models by examining the temporal dynamics of upper-trophic-level fishery catches when fishing down the food web was occurring:

Under the sequential collapse replacement mode, a decline in the mean trophic level should be accompanied by reduced catches of high-trophic-level species as these species become economically extinct. Under the sequential addition mode, however, we expect catches of upper-trophic-level species to be maintained or even increase.

In the 30 large marine ecosystems that exhibited a decline in trophic level , they found 15 that matched the sequential addition model, 6 that showed no pattern, and 9 that showed sequential collapse. They differences between the two models are illustrated in Figure 1 from the paper, shown below.

Fishing down food websFig. 1. Illustrative examples of the sequential collapse replacement (A) and sequential addition (B) mode of fishing down the food web. Total yearly catch for each 0.1 trophic-level increment is indicated by the color bar on the right (104 kg yr 1). The mean trophic level (white line) was smoothed by using a locally weighted regression smoother. (A) The Scotian Shelf ecosystem exhibited a sharp decline in mean trophic level from 1990 to 2001 owing to the collapse of the cod fishery followed by a decline in the herring fishery and then the growth of the northern prawn fishery. (B) The mean trophic level of the Patagonian Shelf declined from 1980 to 2001, during which time catches for upper-trophic-level species (Argentinean hake) grew substantially while new fisheries for shortfin squid developed.

Essington and his coauthors point out that fisheries science, at least in the published literature, has assumed that fishing down food webs follows the sequential collapse model, and this model has different policy implications to the sequential addition model.

Perhaps the most important policy consideration of the sequential addition mode is that, in most ecosystems of the world, several trophic levels are now exploited simultaneously. These diverse fisheries impose conflicting demands on marine ecosystems that are not generally well represented in single-species management plans that do not consider the effects of these alternative fisheries on each other. As the structure of fisheries and the management environment evolve, the scientific community faces a new challenge of conducting broad-scale ecological research to support the development of more holistic, ecologically based approaches to fisheries management.

Another description of the research is provided in a U Washington press release.

Anthropogenic Modification of Vapours Flows and Tipping Points in the Earth System

Compare the map of soil moisture – atmosphere couplings against Gordon et al’s 2005 map of changes in vapour flows in the Human modification of global water vapor flows from the land surface.

PNAS Vapour Flows

Figure shows spatial distribution of net changes in vapor flows between potential vegetation and actual deforested and irrigated vegetation in mm/yr. The aggregated global change as compared with the potential vegetation is small (400 km3/yr), but the map illustrates the large spatial redistribution of water vapor flows from the land surface at the global scale.

Note that the location of increases in vapor flows in irrigation matches up with several of the hotspots identified in the map of soil moisture – atmosphere couplings – central Great Plains of North America, and India. Change occurs also in less intense hot spots appear in South America and China. Consquently, the combination of these two papers predicts that irrigation should have altered the local climate in these regions more than in other regions.

Leverage Points in the Earth System: Soil Moisture

The 2004 Science paper – Regions of Strong Coupling Between Soil Moisture and Precipitation – by Koster et al. used a dozen independent climate models to estimate ‘hot spots’ on Earth’s surface where precipitation is affected by soil moisture anomalies during Northern Hemisphere summer. They propose that these hot spots are, in a sense, land-surface analogs to the ocean’s “El Niño hot spot” in the eastern tropical Pacific.

Soil moisture is a slowly vary aspect of the Earth system (relative to weather). Soil moisture can persist for months. Soil moisture, influences evaporation and other surface energy fluxes can influence weather.

Soil moisture atmospheric coupling

Figure: Hot spots of soil moisture – local precipitation coupling appear in the central Great Plains of North America, the Sahel, equatorial Africa, and India. Less intense hot spots appear in South America, central Asia, and China.

The hot spots are located in regions that in areas that are at intermediate moisture levels. The authors argue that this is because in wet climates, soil water is plentiful and evaporation is controlled not by soil moisture but by net radiative energy. In dry climates evaporation rates are sensitive to soil moisture but they are small. Consquently the biggest impact of soil moisture on evaporation is in the transition areas between dry and wet climates.

What this analysis suggests is that these hotspots are areas in which changes in land use – especially those that alter soil moisture – such as irrigation or land clearing, will have a larger impact of regional climate.

Anoxic zones – mapping ecosystem tradeoffs (a start)

Current industrial agricultural practices, particularly the overuse of fertilizer and its sloppy management, frequently create a tradeoff between agricultural production and coastal eutrophication. That is increases in agricultural yields have produced low oxygen zones around the world. The UNEP Global Environmental Outlook 2003 maps the location of coastal anoxic zones world wide (somewhat confusingly the worst cases – the persistent ones are coloured yellow, next worst red and orange, and least worst blue).
Global distribution of oxygen-depleted coastal zones.

Global distribution of oxygen-depleted coastal zones. The 146 zones shown are associated with either majorpopulation concentrations or with watersheds that deliver large quantities of nutrients to coastal waters.

Legend:

  • Annual – yearly events related to summer or autumnal stratification
  • Episodic – events occurring at irregularintervals greater than one year
  • Periodic – events occurring at regular intervals shorter than one year
  • Persistent –all-year-round hypoxia

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