All posts by Garry Peterson

Prof. of Environmental science at Stockholm Resilience Centre at Stockholm University in Sweden.

Balance, Bias, and Complexity in Climate Change Journalism

The Society of Environmental Journalists: SEJ Publications has an interesting set of articles on climate change and journalism – an interview with NYTimes journalist Andrew Revkin and an article on journalistic balance.

Do you think that climate change is covered adequately by the media? I mean, what kind of job do you think they’re doing?

AR: It’s certainly a decent amount of coverage these days, but I still…I don’t think people are covering it wrong. It doesn’t fit the norms of journalism. The heft of the story is not conveyed. Either the uncertainties make us all fuzz out and look at something more germane like a new explosion in Iraq or the latest scandal in Washington with lobbyists. So we turn away from it. Or we latch onto some new finding that feels like news (abrupt change) and our endless sift for the “front-page thought” makes us minimize the uncertainties.

But it’s not just a journalism problem. After covering it for twenty years…you can write the perfect story capturing both the gravitas and the uncertainties of human-induced climate change, perfect on every level, and it won’t change things.

We are not attuned to things on this time scale and with this level of uncertainty. Partly because of our political system being so short term, our business cycle being so short term, and because our concerns are focused mainly on what affects my family, then what affects my community, then what affects my state, then what affects my country, and then what affects my globe.

What would be the key points you’d stress with other journalists about climate change? What subjects should they hit?

AR: Not just for climate change, but just in general. When you can step back, whether it’s sprawl or nonpoint source pollution or climate change, there are things going on around you that are profound, that are transforming landscapes. And we ignore them because they are happening in this incremental fashion that journalism just does not recognize.

And it’s not the kind of thing that you can do daily or maybe even yearly. But once in a while, when there’s a slow news cycle, step back and see how many houses are being built on steep slopes, or how much leakage there is from underground gas tanks. Or what ecologists and biologists are saying about the way a valley, watershed or coast will be transformed over the next century and how does that relate to the surrounding institutions?

A perfect example is coastal development and sea level rise. One of the firmest things coming out of any climate model is that rising seas are the new normal for centuries to come. So if you are a journalist on the coast, this immediately starts a series of stories to see what is being done to reflect that.

You have to look at the world and ask, “Do our institutions reflect, are we still granting flood insurance to low lying areas?” It can lead to these types of stories.

On the mitigation side, college activism is exploding now. When I went to Montreal to cover the last round of climate-treaty talks the only people there who seemed to be talking sense were the youngest ones.

Earth and Sky site also has an interview with Andrew Revkin about his interest in the North Pole.

Adaptive environmental assessment and management: course reading evaluation

At the end of my adaptive management course at McGill I asked my students evaluate the course readings and suggest which three I should keep and which three I should cut. There was substantial agreement on what to keep, but more disagreement on what to cut.

Keep 

A favourite reading for over half the class was:

The students liked this chapter because it was a real world case from the point of view of an individual that was also well connected to theory.

Students also really liked the Holling readings. Both the summary of the book Panarchy

  • CS Holling. 2001. Understanding the complexity of economic, ecological and social systems. Ecosystems 4: 390–405.

and the pathology of resource management.

  • CS Holling, and G. K. Meffe. 1996. Command and Control and the Pathology of Natural Resource Management. Conservation Biology 10(2): 328-37.

The next favourite was controversial

This paper was popular with about a third of the class but an equal number thought it was one of the readings that should be cut.

Other readings that got more than one vote were readings from Kai Lee’s book, Carl Walters’ book, my scenario planning paper, and the Fazey learning article.

Cut 

The paper most recommended to be cut was:

Students thought it didn’t add a lot to the course. While some students thought it was one of the best papers, more than three times more thought it should be cut than kept.

The second recommendation for cutting was

Students found this paper too technical (I don’t think it is). This rating probably indicates that I need to rework how I discuss about bayesian statistics, learning and experimental design in the class.

The third least popular paper was the Olsson et al paper . mentioned above.
The excerpts from Kai Lee’s book were the only other readings to have more than two recommendations for removal, however an equal number of students thought they were some of the best readings.
Reading Revisions 

What I plan to do reduce the number of core readings, add some supplementary readings, and rethink the quantitative part of the course – I think I need some good in class excercises and homework assignments on bayesian stats and experimental design.  But, I might change my mind after I read the reports from their adaptive management projects.

MA: Putting a Price Tag on the Planet

Putting a Price Tag on the Planet is a long article by Lila Guterman on the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment in the April 7, 2006 The Chronicle of Higher Education. The article describes the history, funding, and operation of the MA as well as its findings.

As the 20th century drew to a close, leaders in the field of ecology decided they were failing at one of their primary goals. They had presented sign after sign that people were harming the environment — killing off species, destroying rain forests, polluting the air and water — but the warnings had little effect. So, to encourage conservation, they decided to appeal to humanity’s baser instincts.

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Tomorrow’s frontier – the wreckage of the unsustainable past

In Metropolis magazine, Bruce Sterling writes about his time as a Visionary in Residence at Art Center College of Design, in Pasadena, California.

It doesn’t take visionary genius to spot tomorrow’s frontier. It’s not the virgin sod of the American West because there isn’t any now. Tomorrow’s frontier is the wreckage of the unsustainable past. There is no place for us to start over clean, except through cleaning what no longer works. And that frontier is colossal because so little is working. I’ll put on my visionary hat for one last time and predict: you’ll know it’s working when you see the rust bloom.

link

Using weblogs in science

Nature (March 30, 2006) has an profile of the father and son scientists Roger Pielke Jr and Roger Pielke Sr. Each of them run a climate weblog. Pielke Sr focuses on climate science, while Pielke Jr focuses on science policy. Below are their explanations to Nature on how their weblogs help their research.

Roger Pielke Jr runs Prometheus: The Science Policy Weblog

“It started as an experiment for our centre, and now it serves a number of different purposes. It is kind of like an extra hard drive for my brain. I can search for things that I’ve written, something I might want later, sort of like my professional notes in a public format. “I’m surprised at the reach the blog has, which is rewarding for this centre with only eight of us here. We can put an argument on it and it shows up out there in the real world. I get contacted by professionals in the United States or elsewhere that I would have never met otherwise. “Blogs are also out there for the public, and it gives you an entirely different perspective on how well the public is getting your message.”

Roger Pielke Sr runs the weblog Climate Science

“My weblog was completely motivated by my son’s. I was sending all these e-mails out to people about committee reports and he said, ‘Why don’t you just do a weblog?’ “With so many journals out there now, it is hard to keep track. When a peer reviewed paper comes out, I can put up the abstract and a summary of key points on the blog. “Now I’m making my arguments to a broader community to see how well they stand up. I also use it as a professional diary and it has increased my network. “The feedback has been wonderful.”

I have been using this weblog in a similar way to Roger Pielke Jr. I have been posting articles of things that I have been reading in my research or teaching that I think will be interesting to the larger resilience community. I frequently use the weblog to show colleagues and students articles, figures, or ideas that I think are relevant to our work. From the posts on the site you are probably able to guess that I am working on the impacts of inequality in social-ecological systems and connections between agriculture and water.

Exploring Resilience in Social-Ecological Systems – E&S special feature

Ecology & Society has just published a special feature Exploring Resilience in Social-Ecological Systems: Comparative Studies and Theory Development based upon the comparisons of 15 Resilience Alliance case studies.

The current table of contents of the issue is:

Exploring Resilience in Social-Ecological Systems Through Comparative Studies and Theory Development: Introduction to the Special Issue
by Brian H. Walker, John M. Anderies, Ann P. Kinzig, and Paul Ryan

A Handful of Heuristics and Some Propositions for Understanding Resilience in Social-Ecological Systems
by Brian Walker, Lance Gunderson, Ann Kinzig, Carl Folke, Steve Carpenter, and Lisen Schultz

Scale Mismatches in Social-Ecological Systems: Causes, Consequences, and Solutions
by Graeme S. Cumming, David H. M. Cumming, and Charles L. Redman

Resilience and Regime Shifts: Assessing Cascading Effects
by Ann P. Kinzig, Paul Ryan, Michel Etienne, Helen Allyson, Thomas Elmqvist, and Brian H. Walker

Fifteen Weddings and a Funeral: Case Studies and Resilience-based Management
by John M. Anderies, Brian H. Walker, and Ann P. Kinzig

Toward a Network Perspective of the Study of Resilience in Social-Ecological Systems
by Marco A. Janssen, Örjan Bodin, John M. Anderies, Thomas Elmqvist, Henrik Ernstson, Ryan R. J. McAllister, Per Olsson, and Paul Ryan

Collapse and Reorganization in Social-Ecological Systems: Questions, Some Ideas, and Policy Implications
by Nick Abel, David H. M. Cumming, and John M. Anderies

Governance and the Capacity to Manage Resilience in Regional Social-Ecological Systems
by Louis Lebel, John M. Anderies, Bruce Campbell, Carl Folke, Steve Hatfield-Dodds, Terry P. Hughes, and James Wilson

Water RATs (Resilience, Adaptability, and Transformability) in Lake and Wetland Social-Ecological Systems
by Lance H. Gunderson, Steve R. Carpenter, Carl Folke, Per Olsson, and Garry Peterson

Shooting the Rapids: Navigating Transitions to Adaptive Governance of Social-Ecological Systems
by Per Olsson, Lance H. Gunderson, Steve R. Carpenter, Paul Ryan, Louis Lebel, Carl Folke, and C. S. Holling

Survey of Initial Impacts of Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment‘s general synthesis report was released about a year ago. On March 21 2006, the MA released an assessment of the initial impact of the MA. The report is written by Walt Reid, the director of the MA, based upon a survey of (report pdf). The survey found that some organizations and countries have been significantly influenced by the MA while others have not been minimally if at all. In the report’s executive summary Walt Reid assess the impact of the MA on its multiple target audiences:

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Mapping Sea Level Rise

Sea Level Rise Jonathan Overpeck and others have a paper Paleoclimatic Evidence for Future Ice-Sheet Instability and Rapid Sea-Level Rise in Science (24 March 2006) that suggests that sea level rise due to anthropogenic climate change could occur much faster than people have previously expected. Possibly an increase of 5 to 10 m of several centuries. (For news articles see BBC, NYTimes, & Toronto G&M).

To visualize the consquences of sea level rise:

WorldChanging points to Flood Maps. A site that mashes up NASA elevation data with Google Maps, and offers a visualization of the effects of a single meter increase all the way to a 14 meter rise. Some examples are: Vancouver with 6m sea rise, New Orleans, and the Netherlands.

Also, Jonathan Overpeck‘s lab also has a visualization of the consquences of sea level rise for the US and the world.

Richard Kerr writes in a news article in Science, A Worrying Trend of Less Ice, Higher Seas:

The ice sheet problem today very much resembles the ozone problem of the early 1980s, before researchers recognized the Antarctic ozone hole, Oppenheimer and Alley have written. The stakes are high in both cases, and the uncertainties are large. Chemists had shown that chlorine gas would, in theory, destroy ozone, but no ozone destruction had yet been seen in the atmosphere. While the magnitude of the problem remained uncertain, only a few countries restricted the use of chlorofluorocarbons, mainly by banning their use in aerosol sprays.

But then the ozone hole showed up, and scientists soon realized a second, far more powerful loss mechanism was operating in the stratosphere; the solid surfaces of ice cloud particles were accelerating the destruction of ozone by chlorine. Far more drastic measures than banning aerosols would be required to handle the problem.

Now glaciologists have a second mechanism for the loss of ice: accelerated flow of the ice itself, not just its meltwater, to the sea. “In the end, ice dynamics is going to win out” over simple, slower melting, says Bindschadler. Is glacier acceleration the ozone hole of sea level rise? No one knows. No one knows whether the exceptionally strong warmings around the ice will continue apace, whether the ice accelerations of recent years will slow as the ice sheets adjust to the new warmth, or whether more glaciers will fall prey to the warmth. No one knows, yet.

Green water efficiency in farming

Green & Blue water A recent SciDev.net article Improve water efficiency in farming, urges report describes an International Water Management Insitute (IMWI) report – Beyond More Crop per Drop prepared for the 4th World Water Forum in Mexico (March 2006).

The article quotes IWMI director general, Frank Rijsberman, who justifies the need to increase water use efficiency by the statement that it takes “70 times more water to grow the food we eat every day than we need for drinking, cooking, bathing and other domestic needs.”

The report describes how water management usually focuses on runoff, blue water, which is only 40% of rainfall. The other 60% is green water that replenishes soil moisture and evaporates from the soil or is transpired by plants. The report states that three quarters of the world’s poor depend upon rainfed agriculture (90% in sub-Saharan Africa), meaning that improving green water productivity has the potential to improve the well-being of the world’s poor.

The report writes:

Increasing the productivity of green water used in rainfed agriculture has great potential to reduce the area needed for agriculture. Agricultural production of staple crops in Africa, has, over the last 40 years, increased almost exclusively by area expansion, at the cost of large areas of natural ecosystems. To enable sustainable increases in food production in Africa, agricultural intensification is absolutely necessary. Increasing the productivity of green water used in rainfed agriculture – particularly by adding a limited amount of blue water (from rivers or aquifers) through supplemental irrigation has great potential.

Rainwater harvesting in Sri LankaThe report recommends using rainwater harvesting, supplemental and micro irrigation, and using land and water conservation to increasee infiltration and reduce runoff, to increase green water efficiency. It suggests that using these known techniques could double crop yields.

The IMWI report provides examples of water management in stories from two areas the Awash Basin – Ethiopia and the Krishna Basin – India.

See also, my previous post on agricultural modification of green water flows.