Comments on: Are Epidemic Early Warnings, Really “Early” Warnings? http://rs.resalliance.org/2009/05/04/are-epidemic-early-warnings-really-early-warnings/ coping with ecological surprise in a human dominated world Thu, 18 Mar 2010 15:09:29 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: Get A Trip http://rs.resalliance.org/2009/05/04/are-epidemic-early-warnings-really-early-warnings/comment-page-1/#comment-220862 Get A Trip Mon, 08 Jun 2009 09:35:54 +0000 http://rs.resalliance.org/?p=1382#comment-220862 I think the science of predicting early outbreaks of viral disease is a necessity and should continue to expand. We can, as this article points out, look to all sorts of early warning signs. If this is what a Field Epidemiologist does, I would consider it quite important work. At least as important as any other scientist predicting natural disaster. Preparation sometimes is all we can do. Once a disease like Ebola is loose it's too late. The fatality rate can be 90%. If we know there is going to be a high risk area we can start to send medical supplies to that area or cleanup the area that could be infected with that type of mosquito, as is the usual carrier. I think the science of predicting early outbreaks of viral disease is a necessity and should continue to expand. We can, as this article points out, look to all sorts of early warning signs. If this is what a Field Epidemiologist does, I would consider it quite important work. At least as important as any other scientist predicting natural disaster. Preparation sometimes is all we can do. Once a disease like Ebola is loose it’s too late. The fatality rate can be 90%. If we know there is going to be a high risk area we can start to send medical supplies to that area or cleanup the area that could be infected with that type of mosquito, as is the usual carrier.

]]> By: IGERT - University of Hawaii http://rs.resalliance.org/2009/05/04/are-epidemic-early-warnings-really-early-warnings/comment-page-1/#comment-220624 IGERT - University of Hawaii Thu, 07 May 2009 20:57:51 +0000 http://rs.resalliance.org/?p=1382#comment-220624 [...] posted on Resilience Science: Are Epidemic Early Warnings, Really ‘Early’ Warnings? Excerpt: One point missing in [...] [...] posted on Resilience Science: Are Epidemic Early Warnings, Really ‘Early’ Warnings? Excerpt: One point missing in [...]

]]> By: Mike http://rs.resalliance.org/2009/05/04/are-epidemic-early-warnings-really-early-warnings/comment-page-1/#comment-220597 Mike Tue, 05 May 2009 09:39:45 +0000 http://rs.resalliance.org/?p=1382#comment-220597 Environmental changes such as deforestation and biodiversity loss associated with outbreaks of some diseases are relatively "slow variables" compared with disease outbreaks themselves. It is unlikely that there are environmental indicators with sufficient sensitivity to act as effective early warning mechanisms for disease. However, disease outbreaks can be considered as an effective indicator of slow variable stress in vertebrates and their habitats. We can expect the frequency of disease outbreaks to increase as ecosystems are stressed by human use and poverty among people increases. Environmental changes such as deforestation and biodiversity loss associated with outbreaks of some diseases are relatively “slow variables” compared with disease outbreaks themselves. It is unlikely that there are environmental indicators with sufficient sensitivity to act as effective early warning mechanisms for disease. However, disease outbreaks can be considered as an effective indicator of slow variable stress in vertebrates and their habitats. We can expect the frequency of disease outbreaks to increase as ecosystems are stressed by human use and poverty among people increases.

]]> By: Drew Tyre http://rs.resalliance.org/2009/05/04/are-epidemic-early-warnings-really-early-warnings/comment-page-1/#comment-220589 Drew Tyre Tue, 05 May 2009 01:32:47 +0000 http://rs.resalliance.org/?p=1382#comment-220589 The critical question is whether the ecological data is sufficiently accurate to provide better forewarning than guessing - neither the bush-meat nor hantavirus examples above actually compare ecological signals with subsequent outbreak frequency, although the mechanisms are plausible. Other than not travelling there - what could you do about an imminent outbreak? Maybe the connections aren't strong enough to trigger preventative action 'on the ground', but operate at a larger hierarchical level to modify policy about food availability and land use. Ecologically early is earlier than epidemiologically early! The critical question is whether the ecological data is sufficiently accurate to provide better forewarning than guessing – neither the bush-meat nor hantavirus examples above actually compare ecological signals with subsequent outbreak frequency, although the mechanisms are plausible. Other than not travelling there – what could you do about an imminent outbreak? Maybe the connections aren’t strong enough to trigger preventative action ‘on the ground’, but operate at a larger hierarchical level to modify policy about food availability and land use.

Ecologically early is earlier than epidemiologically early!

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