Archive for November, 2006 Page 2 of 2



Increase in Number of Coastal Dead Zones

Contemporary agriculture uses huge amounts of fertilizer (largely responsible for the doubling of global Nitrogen flows and the tripling of global Phosphorus flows).  The over application and lack of finesse with which fertilizer is used produces a tradeoff between increased agricultural production and coastal ecosystem production.

Agricultural runoff is the main driver of low oxygen coastal ‘dead zones,’ which greatly reduce fish, shellfish, and most other living things, consequently reducing coastal fisheries, recreation opportunities, and sometimes, when there are toxic algae blooms, endangering human health.

A Science magazine news article (Oct 26, 2006) reports on an update to a UNEP assessment of the world’s dead zones.

The number of oxygen-starved “dead zones” in global marine waters has jumped by more than a third in the last 2 years, according to a United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) report released last week. The latest figures reveal some 200 dead zones worldwide, up from 149 since 2004. The affected waters are robbed of fish, oysters, sea grasses, and other marine life, damaging food supplies for millions of people worldwide, the report warns.
Dead zones form when microscopic marine plants called phytoplankton explode in number. When the phytoplankton die, bacteria feast on them and consume vast amounts of dissolved oxygen. The resulting oxygen depletion–or hypoxia–kills fish, oysters, sea grasses, and other marine life. Although phytoplankton are the backbone of marine food chains and their populations naturally wax and wane, abnormally large “blooms” have been on the rise since the 1970s. According to the UNEP report, this has been due to skyrocketing marine levels of nutrients such as phosphorus and nitrogen from fertilizers, sewage, animal wastes, and other sources.

Marine biologist Robert Diaz of the Virginia Institute of Marine Sciences in Williamsburg compiled much of the findings on dead zones from exhaustive reviews of scientific journals around the world. Better scientific reporting in recent years likely accounts for some of the apparent increase in the phenomenon, he says; “however, there’s no mistaking the consistent upward trend over the last 50 years.” It is difficult to estimate the total area affected worldwide, but he believes the total is “on the order of” 300,000 square kilometers. About 80% of the zones occur every summer and autumn, he says. Some, such as the Baltic Sea’s 80,000-square-kilometer zone, even persist year-round.

The situation may well worsen. The UNEP report projects that the volume of nitrogen alone dumped by rivers into the oceans will climb 14% by 2030, compared to mid-1990s levels. However, not all dead zones are linked to human activities, says paleoceanographer Kjell Nordberg of Göteborg University in Sweden. His historical and geological studies indicate that natural changes in climate and ocean conditions have caused oxygen depletion in some North Sea estuaries and fjords. Not all hope is lost, however. In some areas where sewage discharge and agricultural practices are implicated, regulations to curb the impacts have helped improve oxygen levels over the last few years, Nordberg says.

Server/Database crash and recovery

Resilience Science had database crash on the weekend.  I’m still repairing things, but the weblog should be fully restored by next week.

World Hunger – Successes and failures on the road to meet the Millennium Development Goals

FAO released their new report on global food insecurity earlier this week. The first headline in the report is ‘Despite setbacks, the race against hunger can be won’ which to me clearly illustrates the somewhat contrasting situations when looking through regional developments across the world in relation to successes and failures to reduce hunger and mal-nutrition.

A depressing story is that globally, the number of undernourished people is basically the same today (around 800 million) as they were 10 years ago, when the leaders of 185 countries agreed at the World Food Summit (WFS) to halve the number by 2015. However, the proportion of hungry people is dropping, from 20% in the early 1990’s, to 17% today. According to FAO this suggests that the world is on a path towards meeting the Millennium Development Goal on hunger reduction (halving the proportion of hungry people in developing countries by 2015 as compared to what it was in 1990–92). FAO cautions to dismiss the period as a “lost decade since that could compound existing skepticism and would risk detracting from positive action being.

So what are the good parts of the story? Well, several regions have substantially reduced hunger and undernourishments. The largest progress can be found in Asia & the Pacific as well as in Latin America & the Caribbean (see figure). When looking at commonalities across sucess storeis Margarita Flores, secretary of the committee of food security, FAO says:

When we analyze the successful stories, most of them have at least two common characteristics. One of them is economic growth, and particularly agricultural growth. When you see the rapid growth in cities, especially in Latin America, you see a reduction of poverty in rural areas and increase in poverty in urban areas. That means a migration of poor people to the cities. We need to solve the problem in the rural areas.

Progress and setbacks
However, there are severe setbacks in several regions of the world. As usual it is most countries in sub-Saharan Africa that have some of the major challenges. At the same time the FAO report is trying to be optimistic:

Recent progress in reducing the prevalence of undernourishment is noteworthy. For the first time in several decades, the share of undernourished people in the region’s population saw a significant decline: from 35 percent in 1990–92 to 32 percent in 2001–03, after having reached 36 percent in 1995–97. This is an encouraging development, but the task facing the region remains daunting: the number of undernourished people increased from 169 million to 206 million while reaching the WFS target will require a reduction to 85 million by 2015.

SSA

The report list a series of steps that they believe are needed to eradicate hunger in the years ahead:

  • focusing programmes and investments on “hotspots” of poverty and undernourishment;
  • enhancing the productivity of smallholder agriculture;
  • creating the right conditions for private investment, including transparency and good governance;
  • making world trade work for the poor, with safety nets put in place for vulnerable groups;
  • and a rapid increase in the level of Official Development Assistance (ODA) to 0.7 percent of GDP.